Voting for the Future

Observers say that it is status quo after the triple by-elections and this is how the mainstream media will sing the tune - that BN did not hold the seats in the two Bukits and therefore all is okay despite the loss. It retained Batang Ai and got an even bigger majority, so support actually increased in east Malaysia.But the very opposite is true.

The results show irrefutably that despite all the disadvantages that the opposition faced, it still won. It not only won but increased its majority. PAS won with a majority near 3,000 votes and PKR with nearly 2,400 votes.

In Batang Ai, as many commentators predicted, the situation favoured the government. The opposition simply did not have the resources to stretch across the South China Sea. But an impression of their commitment was made. Sarawak can wait till the next state elections due rather soon.

Opposition victory in Kedah and Perak are indicative of three facts. First, the mood of the people against the BN is now entrenched. Raising the titan Dr Mahathir Mohamad did nothing for the BN in Kedah. In fact, it galvanised the opposition and voters were reminded of the bad old days.The mantra of development when uttered in the same breath with Mahathir is inextricably linked to cronyism, corruption and the ruin of governmental institutions. Plus the Twin Towers are in KL and not near enough to awe Kedahans, who remained largely poor despite his many years as PM.

No doubt, Mahathir can give us invaluable advice about how to handle our economy but he should, from now on, give constructive criticism. Speaking from both side of his mouth did not help the BN. Second, the non-Malay votes remain strongly with the opposition. This is not too surprising despite a lot of economic pain here. Non-Malay commitment to the objectives of March 2008, which is change towards a more equitable Malaysia, remains solid.In both these constituencies, the non-Malays voted overwhelmingly for the future although that meant giving up present “instant noodles”.

In Sarawak, the dynamics being different, support remained for the resource-rich BN.Be worried, BNNonetheless, the BN should be very worried. Commitment to a cause in politics is a powerful weapon. As with the rejection of Mahathir’s style of politics, the era of the strongman is over. Already, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is smelling so much better than his predecessor.In the case of the MIC, the party must realise that with a tainted leader like S Samy Vellu, it cannot hope to win any election in Peninsular Malaysia. How Najib handles the MIC leader will be interesting.

But more ominously for the BN, the consistent and continued shift of support of the non-Malay voters to the opposition spells the technical demise of BN’s component parties. The lacklustre Gerakan, a party that so far has not been able to demonstrate thought-leadership at any level, will be the first to be wiped out. The MCA and MIC should follow suit if the trend continues.

Ultimately, the continued support of the Malays for PKR and PAS has created a credible alternative called Pakatan Rakyat. It has won all four by-elections in the peninsula since Sept 8, 2008.

The alternative party is more solid than ever because voices in PAS urging a unity government with Umno - on the grounds of creating a super-ethno-nationalist Malay-Muslim party - will now be drowned out by the very real prospect of coming into power through the ballot box.If there is one lesson we can draw from the two Bukits is that coming to power through the ballot box is not only sweeter but legitimate. If, as the BN claimed during its campaign, Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin is a traitor, his victory in Bukit Gantang is rejection of Umno’s power grab. This despite Mahathir changing his mind.

As for the Perak government take-over, the courts have yet to decide on various issues. But if snap elections were held today, the BN would surely lose the state.Mohd Nizar has shown himself to be an astute, reasonable and popular menteri besar. All of Umno’s rhetoric about derhaka (treason) has come to nought.

A solid Pakatan Rakyat must now move into the next stage of its evolution. It must begin to assume the mantle of government. In the meantime, the BN has to do real soul-searching and some hard thinking. It is not winning hearts, minds or votes.

(First Published on Apr 8, 09 11:19am)